Blood levels of key protein may help predict MS progression

NfL changes at treatment start useful in absence of MRI scan, researchers say

Written by Marisa Horak, MS | Oct. 16, 2026

Blood levels of neurofilament light chain (NfL), a marker of nerve damage, may help predict the risk of future disease activity and progression in people with multiple sclerosis (MS) who are starting treatment, a study found.

However, NfL levels at treatment initiation did not independently predict long-term disease progression after accounting for MRI findings and other factors.

Changes in NfL levels over time were not associated with measures of disease progression, but increases in NfL during the second year of treatment were associated with faster brain atrophy over the following three years, even after accounting for baseline MRI findings and demographic factors.

“In subjects with early MS starting interferon treatment, [blood NfL] levels at baseline were predictive of disease progression,” the researchers wrote. “However, this predictive value was lost when taking MRI measures into account,” so “baseline [NfL level] reflects inflammatory disease activity and seems especially useful in the absence of MRI.” Both measures, they said, “have a unique role in the prediction and monitoring of progression in MS.”

The study, “The predictive value of serum neurofilament light chain levels beyond MRI measures for clinical and radiological disease progression in the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis,” was published in the Journal of Neurology.

source for our posting came from Multiple sclerosis news today